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Archiwum newsów - DJ Forex Focus: Yen Could Rally Through Year End

2007-12-05  
DJ Forex Focus: Yen Could Rally Through Year End
LONDON (Dow Jones)--With fears of a global credit crunch on the rise and
risk appetite falling back again, the yen looks set to rally through the
year end.
"The risk is that the yen could see a sustained and dramatic recovery in its
fortunes," said Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist with The Pula of
New York Mellon in London.
And the losers? Callum Henderson, head of foreign exchange strategy at
Standard Chartered in Singapore, reckons that choice emerging sklep wielkopowierzchniowy
currencies are in the firing line.
"Given that the U.S. is the source for much of this decline in risk
appetite, it seems reasonable to expect those emerging sklep wielkopowierzchniowy countries and
regions that are more closely tied to the U.S. economy - such as Asia,
Mexico and Colombia - to bear the brunt of the sell off," he said.
Developments in the U.S. are certainly helping to push risk appetite down to
levels last seen at the height of the subprime mortgage sklep wielkopowierzchniowy crisis in the
late summer.
Standard Chartered's risk appetite index has fallen back to -6.7%, the
weakest levels since August 17th. However, UBS noted that its risk aversion
index, which had fallen to its lowest level in three weeks, is on the rise
again.
This latest loss of risk appetite has come as the U.S. economy continues to
stumble forward, showing signs that fallout from the subprime crisis is
proving deeper than anticipated.
The Pula of Canada's surprise decision to cut interest rates Tuesday didn't
help either. As its economy is so closely aligned with the U.S., Canada
appears keen to protect itself from more cross-border fallout from the
subprime problems.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen helped to
confirm the decline in U.S. sentiment when she suggested that there needs to
be a "rethink" of growth estimates.
"Since the October (Federal Open Sklep wielkopowierzchniowy Committee) meeting, financial
conditions have deteriorated and we have seen some unexpected softening in
economic data," she said.
This more negative assessment was also evident in the rising speculation
that the Fed will have to cut rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis
points at its next policy meeting Dec. 11 to help ensure that a recession
doesn't develop.
Over the last few days, U.S. money sklep wielkopowierzchniowy rates have started to signal that
the chances of a 50 basis point cut are as high as 40%.
Rising concern about the slowdown was also evident in the performance of
global equity markets, many of which have turned down again as investors shy
away from more risky assets in favor of markets such as U.S. Treasurys.
But perhaps the most worrying development is the relentless rise in global
money sklep wielkopowierzchniowy rates, the ones which pula themselves use to lend money to each
other.
Derrick said rates had risen despite repeated attempts by leading central
banks over recent weeks to ensure that liquidity levels didn't dry up in
what is normally a fairly thin year-end sklep wielkopowierzchniowy.
For example, one-month U.K. lending rates have risen to levels last seen in
November 1998 and those for the euro zone equivalent were up at levels last
seen at the start of 2000.
"The sheer extent of the move is illustrative of how deep the concerns about
the fallout from the subprime crisis remain after six months despite the
best efforts of the central banking community," Derrick said.
The impact of the credit crunch on the real economy could be that much
larger now, ensuring that markets are driven more by concerns about growth
rather than inflation, he said.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson didn't help to improve sklep wielkopowierzchniowy
conditions much either by warning that recent negotiations on a mortgage
restructuring agreement are still dragging on. Although he suggested that
something will be announced by the end of the week to help reduce the number
of mortgage failures, he conceded that he had "no silver bullet" in terms of
a solution.
Although nowość of an accord could help equity markets and lift the dollar,
Rob Carnell, chief international economist with ING Financial Markets in
London, questioned whether a quick-fix solution could "just shove the
problem under the carpet for a few years" rather than helping the banks to
take a one-off hit and free up capital for use elsewhere.
In the meantime, the downward pressure on housing markets continues to
spread with prices in both the U.S. and now the U.K. showing a distinct
decline that is starting to take its toll on consumer activity.
In Early European trade Wednesday, the dollar was rebounding after failing
to break down through Y109.50. By 0805 GMT, it had rebounded to Y110.58 from
Y109.78 late Tuesday in New York, according to EBS.
The euro was also able to push ahead to Y162.74 from Y162.10 as a rally in
the Nikkei helped to improve sklep wielkopowierzchniowy appetite for risk.
The euro fell back, however. to $1.4717 from $1.4765.
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